SIR model

Name: SIR

Description: The SIR model

Compartments

Compartment: Susceptible

  • Code name: sus

  • Value can be used for calibration

  • Appears in the databook

  • Databook values will be used for model initialization

  • Description:

  • Data entry guidance:

Compartment: Infected

  • Code name: inf

  • Does not appear in the databook

  • Description:

  • Data entry guidance:

Compartment: Recovered

  • Code name: rec

  • Does not appear in the databook

  • Description:

  • Data entry guidance:

Compartment: Dead

  • Code name: dead

  • Is sink

  • Does not appear in the databook

  • Description:

  • Data entry guidance:

Characteristics

Characteristic: Total number of entities

  • Code name: ch_all

  • Value can be used for calibration

  • Includes:

    • Susceptible

    • Infected

    • Recovered

  • Appears in the databook

  • Databook values will be used for model initialization

  • Description:

  • Data entry guidance:

Characteristic: Prevalence

  • Code name: ch_prev

  • Value can be used for calibration

  • Includes:

    • Infected

  • Denominator: Total number of entities

  • Appears in the databook

  • Databook values will be used for model initialization

  • Description:

  • Data entry guidance:

Characteristic: Number ever infected

  • Code name: ch_infrec

  • Includes:

    • Infected

    • Recovered

  • Does not appear in the databook

  • Description:

  • Data entry guidance:

Characteristic: Number infected or susceptible

  • Code name: ch_infsus

  • Includes:

    • Infected

    • Susceptible

  • Does not appear in the databook

  • Description:

  • Data entry guidance:

Characteristic: Number not at risk of death

  • Code name: ch_newinf

  • Includes:

    • Susceptible

    • Recovered

  • Does not appear in the databook

  • Description:

  • Data entry guidance:

Characteristic: Proportion ever infected

  • Code name: ch_propinfrec

  • Includes:

    • Number ever infected

  • Denominator: Total number of entities

  • Does not appear in the databook

  • Description:

  • Data entry guidance:

Characteristic: Proportion infected or susceptible

  • Code name: ch_propinfsus

  • Includes:

    • Number infected or susceptible

  • Denominator: Total number of entities

  • Does not appear in the databook

  • Description:

  • Data entry guidance:

Characteristic: Proportion not at risk of death

  • Code name: ch_propnewinf

  • Includes:

    • Number not at risk of death

  • Denominator: Total number of entities

  • Does not appear in the databook

  • Description:

  • Data entry guidance:

Parameters

Parameter: Transmission probability per contact

  • Code name: transpercontact

  • Value can be used for calibration

  • Units/format: probability

  • Default value: 0.0008

  • Appears in the databook

  • Used to compute:

    • “Force of infection”

  • Description:

  • Data entry guidance:

Parameter: Number of contacts annually

  • Code name: contacts

  • Value can be used for calibration

  • Units/format: None

  • Default value: 80

  • Appears in the databook

  • Used to compute:

    • “Force of infection”

  • Description:

  • Data entry guidance:

Parameter: Average duration of infections (years)

  • Code name: recrate

  • Value can be used for calibration

  • Units/format: duration

  • Contributes to transitions from:

    • “Infected” to “Recovered”

  • Default value: 0.5

  • Appears in the databook

  • Description:

  • Data entry guidance:

Parameter: Death rate for infected people

  • Code name: infdeath

  • Value can be used for calibration

  • Units/format: probability

  • Contributes to transitions from:

    • “Infected” to “Dead”

  • Default value: 0.016

  • Appears in the databook

  • Description:

  • Data entry guidance:

Parameter: Death rate for susceptible people

  • Code name: susdeath

  • Value can be used for calibration

  • Units/format: probability

  • Contributes to transitions from:

    • “Susceptible” to “Dead”

    • “Infected” to “Dead”

    • “Recovered” to “Dead”

  • Default value: 0.008

  • Appears in the databook

  • Used to compute:

    • “Force of infection”

  • Description:

  • Data entry guidance:

Parameter: Force of infection

  • Code name: foi

  • Units/format: probability

  • Contributes to transitions from:

    • “Susceptible” to “Infected”

  • Default value: None

  • Does not appear in the databook

  • This parameter’s value is computed by a function: (1 - (1-ch_prev*transpercontact)**floor(contacts)*(1-ch_prev*transpercontact*(contacts-floor(contacts))))*(1-susdeath)

  • Depends on:

    • “Prevalence”

    • “Transmission probability per contact”

    • “Death rate for susceptible people”

    • “Number of contacts annually”

  • Description:

  • Data entry guidance:

Interactions

Cascades

Cascade: main

  • Description:

  • Stages:

    • Total number of entities

      • Total number of entities

    • Number ever infected

      • Infected

      • Recovered

    • Recovered

      • Recovered